# Kairos Open Research Questions

This file tracks public research questions that are open to evidence, correction, and alternative interpretation.

Kairos is a working map, not final truth. K4 / K5 / K6 boundaries, current watch items, and asset-regime interpretations remain open to source-backed improvement.

## How To Use This File

Good contributions should include:

- direct sources;
- source type;
- publication date or data period;
- what the source supports;
- what the source challenges;
- what would strengthen or weaken the current Kairos reading.

Do not treat open questions as confirmed claims.

## OQ-001: Is AI a K6 Diffusion Engine or a K5 Late-Phase Mania?

Current status: `K6 Candidate Watch`

Current public reading:

AI may become a new long-wave diffusion engine, but it is not confirmed K6. Kairos needs evidence of broad productivity diffusion, cross-sector adoption, ROI, financing structure, and sectoral profit migration.

What would strengthen:

- broad AI adoption across non-tech sectors;
- sustained productivity improvement in official data;
- enterprise ROI evidence beyond pilots;
- AI-driven profit migration in traditional industries;
- infrastructure constraints becoming durable growth bottlenecks rather than one-off buildouts.

What would weaken:

- adoption concentrated in a few sectors or shallow use cases;
- capex rising faster than AI revenue or cash flow;
- productivity gains remaining micro-level and not diffusing;
- financing fragility rising among AI infrastructure companies;
- evidence that AI spending is primarily narrative-led overcapacity.

Sources needed:

- official productivity data;
- enterprise adoption surveys;
- company filings;
- sector-level margin data;
- energy / data center / grid sources;
- counterevidence from labor, ROI, and capex depreciation.

Related briefs:

- `KW-001_AI_as_K6_Candidate.md`
- `KW-006_AI_Capex_Financing_Fragility.md`

## OQ-002: How Should K4 / K5 Be Periodized?

Current status: `working map / contested`

Current public reading:

Kairos uses soft date ranges for long-wave phases. K4 / K5 boundaries are useful as a map, but they are not final historical truth.

Open points:

- Should K5 start in 1979, 1982, or a transition window?
- Should 2000-2004 be part of K5-B or a separate transition?
- Is 2020 a K5 endpoint, a K5-E shock, or only a transition marker?
- How should Bretton Woods, gold, and inflation-reset phases be expressed?

What would strengthen:

- source-backed periodization proposals;
- asset behavior evidence by phase;
- monetary regime evidence;
- technology diffusion evidence;
- credit structure evidence.

What would weaken:

- hard year claims without evidence;
- periodization based only on market tops or bottoms;
- narrative analogy without source support.

Sources needed:

- economic history;
- monetary history;
- market return datasets;
- official policy chronology;
- long-wave and innovation-cycle literature.

## OQ-003: Did the Post-2020 Shock Create a New Inflation Regime?

Current status: `contested`

Current public reading:

The post-2020 fiscal-monetary shock and inflation return are central to K5-E, but Kairos does not yet treat a durable new inflation regime as confirmed.

What would strengthen:

- inflation staying structurally above the old target zone;
- fiscal deficits and interest burden remaining high;
- policy reaction function tolerating higher inflation;
- wage / services inflation persistence;
- supply shocks becoming recurring rather than temporary.

What would weaken:

- inflation returning near target;
- expectations staying anchored;
- fiscal impulse fading;
- wage and services inflation normalizing;
- evidence that inflation was mostly a temporary supply / reopening shock.

Sources needed:

- official CPI / PCE data;
- fiscal data;
- central bank communication;
- wage and labor cost data;
- inflation expectation measures.

## OQ-004: Are High Real Rates a Structural Break or a Cycle?

Current status: `supported / contested`

Current public reading:

Higher real rates have challenged the low-rate asset-pricing regime, but Kairos treats permanence as an open question.

What would strengthen:

- sustained high real yields;
- refinancing stress;
- long-duration asset underperformance;
- fiscal term premium pressure;
- change in stock-bond correlation regime.

What would weaken:

- real yields returning near zero;
- central banks forced into major easing;
- long-duration assets regaining dominance;
- inflation and fiscal pressure fading.

Sources needed:

- real yield data;
- treasury market data;
- credit spreads;
- equity duration and valuation data;
- historical comparison to prior real-rate regimes.

## OQ-005: Can Financial Conditions Stay Loose Under High Policy Rates?

Current status: `watchlist`

Current public reading:

High policy rates do not automatically mean financial conditions are tight. Credit spreads, liquidity, volatility, private credit, and risk appetite matter.

What would strengthen:

- loose financial conditions indexes;
- tight credit spreads;
- continued private credit expansion;
- low volatility;
- strong risk appetite despite high rates.

What would weaken:

- financial conditions tightening materially;
- high-yield spreads widening;
- private credit stress;
- bank lending standards tightening;
- liquidity stress.

Sources needed:

- financial conditions indexes;
- high-yield spreads;
- private credit data;
- bank lending standards;
- volatility and liquidity measures.

## OQ-006: Is Gold Becoming a Fiat-Credit Hedge?

Current status: `needs-source / watchlist`

Current public reading:

Gold may be shifting from a simple real-rate asset toward a broader fiat-credit hedge, but the public source base needs strengthening.

What would strengthen:

- gold rising despite higher real yields;
- persistent central bank buying;
- reserve diversification evidence;
- geopolitical reserve behavior;
- ETF flows confirming private demand.

What would weaken:

- real rates again explaining most gold behavior;
- central bank demand fading;
- reserve diversification slowing;
- ETF demand staying weak.

Sources needed:

- gold price datasets;
- real yield data;
- central bank purchase data;
- World Gold Council or official reserve data;
- ETF flow data.

## OQ-007: What Evidence Should Enter Public Research Briefs?

Current status: `process question`

Current public reading:

Public research briefs should be curated summaries, not raw internal Evidence Packs.

Useful criteria:

- source is direct and inspectable;
- claim-source mapping is stable;
- the claim is relevant to a public open question;
- limitations and counterevidence are recorded;
- private workflow notes are removed;
- overclaims are rejected or clearly marked.

Open point:

How much source detail should be shown publicly while keeping briefs readable?

## OQ-008: What Should a Future Public Data Layer Include?

Current status: `future / not committed`

Current public reading:

Kairos may eventually add a public data layer, but it should not become an automatic K6 news feed.

Possible public data:

- manually curated indicator pages;
- versioned current reading snapshots;
- public validation log;
- source registry;
- static charts;
- downloadable public CSV or JSON for non-sensitive datasets.

Guardrails:

- no automatic K6 status updates;
- no trading signal system;
- no private Evidence Pack export;
- no false precision.